RBI’s data on Housing price Index

This is a short note.

RBI has just yesterday released this data on Housing price index that I found worth sharing

http://rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=15110#t5

The data is self evident – so I do not want to spend your time trying to explain it. But here are the key takes aways for me -

• There has been an average 19% YOY increase All India (BSE Sensex has given a 12.86% YOY return as of today).
• Kolkatta at 63.3 YOY growth looks over heated – e careful and avoid buying.
• Chennai and Delhi are doing really well. If you are buying – please buy fast – do not delay.  And if you are selling your property – please go slow
• Mumbai seems to have slowed down
• Bangalore has finally started showing a small growth.
• Kanpur and Lucknow – not sure what’s happening in UP ( any of my readers from UP want  to explain?)

 

Invitation for my first book session in a book shop

Hello Friends - starting March end 2013, till date I have done 43 book sessions  -41 of these 43 sessions were in companies (the remaining two were in the Bangalore stock exchange) and so the audience was restricted to employees in the company.

 

Here is my first completely open book session - any one can come.

 

As an author, it gives me great pleasure to invite you to my first book session in a book shop. Atta Galatta is a book shop with a difference -situated in Bangalore, they promote only Indian authors. My session is scheduled for today -  Saturday (27th July) at 5 pm - if you are in Bangalore - please do come.

 

If you think, some of your friends may be interested - please do pass on this invitation to them as well.

Directions to Atta Galatta

From Koramangala BDA Complex
1. Drive towards Indira Nagar Inner Ring Road
2. Take the left turn next to Sukh Sagar restaurant, towards Jyoti Nivas College
3. Take a right turn, before the college (Next to Milennium Opticals)
4. Atta Galatta is the 2nd building on the right

From Forum Mall
1. Take a turn at the signal towards Indoor Games Stadium
2. After the 1st intersection, take a right turn next to the Airtel  Office
3. At the first intersection turn right
4. Atta Galatta is on the left

Mid-year review of my 2013 predictions and where to invest now:

This note is based on my 12 month predictions made in Dec 2012 – and to share with you my sense of where to invest now.
 
So here are the key predictions from my Dec 2012 blog –

·  “The US economy and the US dollar will emerge stronger over the year” – the US economy has emerged stronger that what I had predicted. I had under estimated the recovery of the US economy 6 months back. The US economy is not out of the woods yet – but it is surely doing better than expected.

·  “The European central bank will continue with its policy of monetary easing” – here my predictions have been closer and I do believe that the EU economy will continue to splutter through the year.

· “China and India will do better in 2013 than in 2012” – this has surely not happened.

· “Inflation will fall and RBI will reduce interest rates in H1 -2013” – this has not happened  as envisaged as the inflation has persisted due to the weakening Rupee.

· “USD/INR ratio will go from current Rs 55 range to Rs 57 range” – here I had under estimated the devaluation and we are worse off right now.

· “Gold will beat inflation but will not be a great investment option” – here again I was wrong as the gold prices have fallen globally in USD terms – and has lost about 13% in INR terms over the past six months.

· “Industries that I expect to outperform are FMCG, consumer durables and financial services” – here I was partly correct -  FMCG has given close to 15% in the past 6 months  and consumer durables have hung on and the financial services is down appx 10% in the past 6 months

· “Real estate would do better in 2013 than in 2012” – this seems to be true based on Residex data released till March 2013.

So as is visible, my predictions were off mark – the key reason for this was that 

• I underestimated the US recovery (this lead to a sharp fall in Global gold prices ); and
• I overestimated Indian GDP growth (leading to a sharper devaluation of INR)  

So where am I investing currently?

I have parked my funds in liquid funds temporarily – till I find some good investing options.  At this stage, with RBI’s actions not clear, it is best to park funds in liquid MF’s.

I had sold most of my Gold ETF's last year - and I have moved out of gold completely in Q1. I am not recommending gold yet. As long as the US economy does well – gold will not give a good ROI.

I have signed up for a residential property in Bangalore which I believe will double in value over the next 5 years

 In the past 12 months, my investments in Gruh finance and Repco have done well - and my investments in Jubilant foods and Nesco have not done well – but I am OK with these as I believe that over a period of 3 years all these would do well.

 I am looking at opportunities in the equity markets - FMCG companies (Asian paints, Marico etc) is where my eyes are right now.  I believe that with a time period of 3-5 years – there will be good opportunities here.

My presentation in Bangalore stock exchange

Here is the ppt that I used in my presentation in Bangalore stock exchange yesterday.

www.slideshare.net/slideshow

The session was fully packed with no seats left and people standing at the back. The session lasted for about 2 hours and the overall feedback was that it was a Sunday morning well spent :-)

If you want, you can down load this ppt.